Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.011844 0.013390 0.015063 0.017009 0.019208 0.021620 0.024465
2025-11-02 0.009312 0.011422 0.013899 0.017021 0.020854 0.025412 0.031252
2025-11-09 0.007751 0.010054 0.012910 0.016716 0.021661 0.027880 0.036314
2025-11-16 0.006850 0.009301 0.012481 0.016917 0.022955 0.030907 0.042208
2025-11-23 0.006041 0.008534 0.011897 0.016777 0.023693 0.033172 0.047202
2025-11-30 0.005566 0.008147 0.011754 0.017176 0.025143 0.036463 0.053845
2025-12-07 0.004906 0.007414 0.011035 0.016654 0.025188 0.037714 0.057600
2025-12-14 0.004421 0.006882 0.010542 0.016393 0.025554 0.039415 0.062112
2025-12-21 0.003954 0.006329 0.009958 0.015923 0.025532 0.040487 0.065695
2025-12-28 0.003780 0.006213 0.010028 0.016469 0.027130 0.044177 0.073718
2026-01-04 0.003575 0.006024 0.009962 0.016780 0.028357 0.047351 0.081141
2026-01-11 0.003407 0.005879 0.009949 0.017166 0.029727 0.050846 0.089374
2026-01-18 0.003155 0.005575 0.009653 0.017060 0.030272 0.053031 0.095607
2026-01-25 0.002946 0.005326 0.009432 0.017063 0.031004 0.055599 0.102748
2026-02-01 0.002709 0.005007 0.009058 0.016758 0.031148 0.057120 0.108089
2026-02-08 0.002572 0.004856 0.008970 0.016960 0.032228 0.060402 0.116972
2026-02-15 0.002398 0.004623 0.008712 0.016819 0.032647 0.062483 0.123720
2026-02-22 0.002312 0.004547 0.008738 0.017219 0.034127 0.066672 0.134927
2026-03-01 0.002117 0.004244 0.008309 0.016696 0.033751 0.067238 0.138923
2026-03-08 0.001971 0.004026 0.008025 0.016435 0.033870 0.068773 0.145002
2026-03-15 0.001815 0.003773 0.007654 0.015963 0.033519 0.069327 0.149066
2026-03-22 0.001778 0.003764 0.007771 0.016510 0.035324 0.074432 0.163233
2026-03-29 0.001719 0.003703 0.007778 0.016822 0.036653 0.078635 0.175788